A Seasonally Bearish September May be in Store for Options Traders and Investors Alike

Tom Gentile

Posted in

By: Tom Gentile
September 13th, 2023

5 mins read

Originally published via our newsletter previously. Subscribe for early access!

The Money Calendar seasonal outlook for September in the Financial Markets:

September Money Calendar
September Money Calendar

It doesn’t mean the markets WILL be bearish for the month, but there are more stocks and ETF’s out of our library of securities for this scanning tool that have bearish patterns with these September start dates.

Tom Gentile
C1P: Chief 1-Percenter

Market in Focus

The Q’s: Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ)
The Q’s: Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ)

This is a 120-day candle chart on the QQQ, which is the ETF/fund that has the goal of tracking or replicating investment results or the price and yield performance of the Nasdaq-100 Index.

It’s an ETF/fund that we use to assess our directional assessment of the NASDAQ from a technical analysis stand point.

The NASDAQ has slid the past three trading days, dropping 1.06% today.

In the chart image above the previous peak price of 370 is a price level the QQQ has trade above and below over July and August.

The dotted line indicates that 370 price and if QQQ does not hold that price level as support, this ETF could slide back to the descending resistance line of the channel drawn in.

Power Profit Podcast from Profit Strategies, Inc., and Tom Gentile

My friend and trading colleague Chris Johnson and I run weekly Podcasts on the financial markets called Power Profit Podcast (Watch on YouTube). This is a great resource of information for Options Traders.

I invite you all again to go to the below video and more importantly invite other friends, family, and colleagues to do the same and consider us a quality resource of market education. While they are there they can subscribe for free, and you can count on us to then notify you and them when we have a new session to review.

We ran this session September 1, 2023, and the reason for that was due to the fact the storms might come through and knock out our power.

We were able to get this broadcast in.

And a side note, where I live in FL we got rain and wind, but our power stayed on, and it wasn’t NEAR as bad as it was last year.

Chris is in the Midwest, and he wasn’t fazed by any of this except for the fact his son lives in or near the same county as me.

We got the broadcast in, and we were able to discuss the parallels of those preparing for a storm and those of us options traders and how we prepare for opportunity in the markets.

I’m a ‘Prepper!’ as is Chris and we discuss what it is we prepare for when it comes to our Options Trading in this Power Profit Podcast. Enjoy!

The latest video:

Chris provides a chart showing data where the month of September shows a – 1% performance where the other months average a gain of 1.2%.

Past 20-yr S&P500 Avg. Monthly Performance
Past 20-yr S&P500 Avg. Monthly Performance

Ideas and ways to prepare as options traders (and investors) is to have some cash, hedge existing positions, and consider some longer-term put positions.

All this is done to weather the proverbial storm in the market that is September so we can then be prepared for an expected bounce back in the markets for October and then the race into the finish line which is year end.

September 20-21 is when the FOMC meets.

What is said, decided and forecast may be the ‘WHY’ behind the possible bounce back and bullish move in the markets.

Prior to that meeting is when we will see a great deal of speculation and possibly drive things lower.

Seasonal Investing and Trading Opportunities for September

orange are in there as well.

What those colors indicate are, out of the candidates that have a historical pattern of trading higher or lower 90 or 100% of the time, (9 or 10 of the past 10 years ), those that are green mean the largest majority of those securities have traded higher from that start date to a later date.

Those that are red mean the largest majority of those securities trade lower from that start date to a later date.

The yellow and orange (and lesser shade of green when they are there) mean there is a majority of bullish to bearish candidates just at a lesser % differential than the extreme green or red days.

Here we are September 6th. When I click on the day for September 6th and the first five stocks on the list of securities with bullish or bearish patterns with a start date of today are ALL bearish. (Sorted by positive Power Meter).

The Money Calendar, September 6th 2023
The Money Calendar, September 6th 2023

One consideration we talk about in the podcast is bearish option trade opportunities on SPY itself and one can go through the Money Calendar tool to see if there is a bearish SPY pattern to consider.

Tom Gentile
C1P: Chief 1-Percenter


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