Posted in
Big Picture
By: Tom Gentile
on February 13th, 2023
When you are a technical analyst of stock charts you don’t tend to get to bothered by upcoming company fundamental reports such as earnings, usually. You don’t often make options trading decisions based on upcoming economic reports.
But you will find yourself paying attention to the charts after those items come out and base your upcoming options and current open trade management decisions based on what the results of those reports are.
You’ll also base your future directional market direction bias once those reports are unveiled.
What is being said is though one might not make an options trade decisions prior to those upcoming items you have to give them their due respect and know that what the results of them are DO affect the markets and give you all something to analyze after the fact.
Two Economic Reports that Could Impact the Markets Trading Week Ending Feb. 17, 2023
- CPI – Core CPI
- Initial Jobless Claims
CPI: Consumer Price Index
The CPI measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. It is a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending.
The CPI is one of the more popular measures of inflation and deflation.
This is different than the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures changes in the prices received by U.S. producers of goods and services.
This report is due out tomorrow, Tuesday, Feb 14, 2023.
With it being Valentine’s Day tomorrow let’s hope the markets feel some love for the numbers and react bullishly to keep the market momentum we belief currently is slightly bullish. If the numbers show inflation is cooling off at a pace folks would perceive the Fed likes and helps them in their fight against inflation that could happen.
Initial Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims is a gauge on the number of people filing to receive unemployment insurance benefits. This number is calculated / reported weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor.
This number comes out on Thursday, Feb. 16, 2023
‘Initial’ jobless claims are but one of two types of jobless claims. Initial jobless claims are those filed by people for the first time. The other kind of jobless claim is called ‘Continuing’. These are those claims filed by people who have already been unemployed and are receiving benefits.
We are in a Unique Situation
A high number of initial jobless claims typically deemed a negative indication for the economy and is known to lead to a decrease in stock prices.
Right now, we have a Fed that seems to want to see and believes a weaker labor market is a necessary condition to bring down inflation.
This report is going to be a tricky one in that the number has to be at a balance or strike a balance of being not too hot and not too cold. We want our fellow Americans to have jobs, but it seems the Fed is saying we just can’t have to many of us having jobs while we try to stave off inflation.
How these numbers end up this week will either help investors feel secure in putting their money to work and stock prices run higher or will the numbers make investors uncertain of the economy and want to pull money out of the markets resulting in a sell off.
No one has a crystal ball, but as technical analysts we have to receive the data, see the reaction to it and then we can go to work on determining what we do.
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