Posted in Options Trading
By: Tom Gentile on July 15th, 2022 • 2 mins read
What is often looked for when deciding on a trade (bullish or bearish) is what is the catalyst for the trade?
Take for instance the Earnings Mastery Course going on right now, there is no confusion as to what is the catalyst for an options trade and that is the pending earnings announcement date. Factor in the prospect of Implied Volatility rushing in prior to the eps announce date and that makes for a strong probability of a straddle trade working.
When looking at Money Calendar we don’t look for an earnings announcement date though we pay attention to it, so we don’t hold an option trade from Money Calendar pattern over the earnings and risk volatility crush happening on it and damaging the trade.
Tom has said many a times the Money Calendar is the catalyst or reason for the trade.
But we do look at a couple of other things when trying to select a security with a Money Calendar pattern in our selection process. One of them is sector strength or weakness and we look at the SPDR Sector ETF’s to see each of those percentage gain or loss over at least a month worth of time to see where strength and weakness is.
We then see if there is a Money Calendar pattern on a security that is a component of the ETF we choose to focus on and here is a Money Calendar setup found by doing so.
First look at the graph data from www.sectorspdr.com: This is a 1-month assessment:
Looking at Money Calendar bearish pattern with a start date today on a stock in this ETF we found one on Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY).
It is a 20–30-day pattern. It has a 90% accuracy. The avg. profit would be preferred $3 or greater, but if one looks at the avg. profit in the last 4-years its avg. profit is a bit over $4. Lastly, it has a positive Power Meter (meaning the ang profit move in the recent 3-4 years are higher than its avg. move over the 10-years.
Should this speak to you looking at a bearish option trade, we encourage you to work with your broker on which one to use.
App: Toms Option Tools
Market Insight articles may show images of lists of stocks meeting a variety of options parameters like Unusual Call and or Put activity or Expensive IV found on my app Toms Option Tools.
Other times I will have other charts may work to amplify my educational points.
Those options data lists, however, can be found on my app Tom’s Option Tools. Use your device to search up and download this app and get free access to the Morning Reports section of the app.
Other parts of the app are available at a premium subscription rate, but the Morning Reports Lists are yours free.