Take a Look at our One Year Fibonacci View on the Stock Market

Tom Gentile

Posted in
Technical Analysis

By: Tom Gentile
February 3rd, 2023

2 mins read

The Jobs data came out this morning and they aren’t helping the markets on the day.

Here are the quick numbers for the jobs data and then I want to focus on the technical chart on what I use to represent the stock market, which is the SPY from the first trade day of 2022 to present day.

The jobs report for January; the non-farm payrolls, came in higher than estimates by 517.000.  This beat market estimates of 187.000.

CNBC reports the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%.  This, versus the estimate for 3.6%. That is the lowest jobless level since May of 1969.

Some analysts feel this report is too good to be true and that may well be.  The number did not help the equities markets today with the SPY down on the day (S&P500 itself is down over 44[points at the time pf this writing).

Look at the Open, high. Low, Close (OHLC) chart on the SPY from the first trade day of 2022 to today.

You can see the Fibonacci retracement tool in my software on the chart.

Figure 1: SPY Jan. 3, 2022 – to Present Day
Figure 1: SPY Jan. 3, 2022 – to Present Day

One can see the SPY hit the 50% retracement level.

50% or the number 50 is not part of the Fibonacci sequence, but that number or percentage number is so widely used in technical analysis that you will find it on mine and many other charting software with their Fibonacci tool.

This may eventually play out to be a resistance level the SPY rolls over from, or it may be just one price are SPY stalls before trading higher.

The market did roll over from this Fib level today, but one day does not make a trend so we will monitor from here what happens.

For right now we are leaning a bit more bullish than bearish.

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