The Jobs Report was Released Today and the Markets Traded Higher… What?!

Tom Gentile

Posted in
Big Picture

By: Tom Gentile
October 6th, 2023

4 mins read

As the markets continued its September swoon into the first few trading days of October, which based on seasonal patterns shows the month tends to be more bullish than bearish, one had to start asking themselves, what if the season expected for October doesn’t happen?

A concern for the markets going in to today is what the jobs report will come in at and what that signals the Fed’s action will be and are we truly headed for a recession.

The Jobs Report

This isn’t the full report, but some of the key numbers:

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month.  This was much higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate, which was for 170,000.

This was obviously the opposite of expectations, which was for a slowdown in the jobs market.

The unemployment rate was 3.8%, compared to the forecast for 3.7%.

Higher for Longer (Interest Rates) Concern

Investors and traders even, I believe, have had a constant concern lately that a resilient economy could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high.

Powell’s statement that has been used as a sound bite and headline statement that they may have to keep rates higher for longer, possibly spurring on more rate hikes since inflation remains elevated.

Here is a piece of data from the jobs numbers that may be deemed a slight positive. Wage increases.

Hourly wage increases were reported softer than expected.  The average hourly earnings showed they were up 0.2% for the month and 4.2% from a year ago. This compared to estimates for 0.3% and 4.3% respectively.

This dropped the futures markets prior to the open and even on the open the markets traded lower, and dropped to their lows of the day.

Bullish Reversal on the Day

Come 10:20am US ET the markets pivoted into and went on a bullish run.

This move could be deemed a short-covering rally – fine, call it that.

This move could be deemed an oversold bounce – fine, call it that.

It could be BOTH.

Regardless of what you want to call it, I call it a bullish reversal day.

The key to this move today now is whether or not we see follow through for the move.

Should the markets open up Monday and continue higher then we have a follow through day.  That would be deemed bullish.  Then we have to monitor and see if it can continue that type of bullish price action.

There is the prospect of investors and traders taking profits off this move higher, or maybe they are even back to break even on some of there recent trades from the prior downdraft that the markets experienced.

This may cause a bit of selling, though not so much so the up day gets taken out and the downtrend resumes.

There may be a day or two to three where the price action consolidates within the range of this bullish day.  That may bring bearish harami days, where again the trading range of the days form inside the open and close body of this bullish day.

That speaks to consolidation, which may end up being a ‘continuation’ pattern that then resolves itself to the bulls stepping in and continuing their purchasing of equities and the up moves start to become an uptrend.

The Latest Power Profit Trades Podcast

Chris Johnson and I finished our latest Power Profit Trades podcast yesterday, one day prior to the jobs numbers that came out today.

We talk about the seasonal bullishness for some of the most popular stocks that may come our way in October.  We discuss that it may not specifically start right away, but the market should end up finishing bullish for the month based on seasonals.

We discuss the strikes going on with UAW.  We discuss Airbnb and what is going on in that industry and what that says about the economy.  We then finish up the podcast with a discussion on bonds and how the price, the TLT is my representative for the bond market, is at year lows and has been in a bear trend for the year thus far.

We all can see the yields for bonds are cranking to highs not seen since 2007 (and a high yield is tough for technology).  Chris shows an alternative to TLT which is TBT.

We then talk about the VXX and what its current price action is and an investment idea I pay attention to called SGOV.

I encourage all of you who have yet to subscribe for free to my YouTube channel where you will find these podcasts on a regular basis to go and do so. Subscribe now:

Tom Gentile
C1P: Chief 1-Percenter

App: Toms Option Tools

Toms Option Tools scan the markets for bullish and bearish trade opportunities using our proprietary scans and strategy algorithms. TTR Darknet finds bullish entries based on triple stack channel collisions. Money Calendar identifies seasonal patterns with at least 90% accuracy looking back 10 years. Weekly Cash Clock finds short term opportunities that last a week on average. Microcurrency Trader applies Darknet technology and moving averages to cryptocurrencies. Velocity Trader utilizes volume spike and Velocity indicators on custom stock lists. Quantum Scripts scans the markets for momentum acceleration signals and employs Quantum noise filters. Optimal Trader finds directional pre-earnings opportunities that are optimized for entry date, stock movement, and volatility surge. My Trades tracks the profit/loss of your trades, displays stock charts and risk graphs, creates new trades, and edits existing trades. Morning Report provides top 10 option rankings in 6 categories each day.


Stock and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk.

You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the stock and options market. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

This is neither an offer to buy/sell/ or recommend a particular stock or option.

Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been actually executed, the results may have under or overcompensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with hindsight.

No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Disclaimer of Warranties and Liabilities Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC including employees, consultants, and editors (“Publisher”) cannot and do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the content found in our areas, or its usefulness for any particular purpose.

Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC also make no promises that our content or the service itself will be delivered to you uninterrupted, timely, secure, or error-free. Under no circumstances will Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC be liable for direct, indirect, incidental, or any other type of damages resulting from your use or downloading of any content on our site.

This includes, but is in no way limited to, loss or injury caused in whole or in part by our negligence or by anything beyond our control in creating or delivering any portion of Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC.

You are agreeing that you bear responsibility for your own investment research and investment decisions. You also agree that Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC will not be liable for any I, investment decision made, or action taken by you, or others based upon reliance on news, information, or any other material published by Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC.

Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC relies on various sources of information that we believe to be accurate and reliable. However, we make no claims or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or truth of any material contained on our site.

Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC are educational portals, providing content for educational and informational purposes only. Neither Tom Gentile nor TomsTradingRoom, LLC are a broker/dealer. Investors need a broker to trade stocks and options and must meet certain requirements. All securities, futures, and investments data and ideas are offered to self-directed investors. All prices in USD unless noted otherwise.

A full disclaimer can be found here:

Sign Up Now for Free Education!