Tom’s Weekly Newsletter July 12, 2023

Tom Gentile

Posted in

By: Tom Gentile
July 12th, 2023

3 mins read

Originally published via our newsletter previously. Subscribe for early access!

Seasonal Data to Help Options Traders Post Independence Day

Hope you all had an enjoyable and safe Independence Day celebration and by safe I am talking about hoping you kept all your digits intact.

This week is a shortened week of trade because the markets were closed on the 4th of July and only had a half day of trade the day prior.

In the Tools and observations sections of this week’s newsletter I am going to show you what the SPY, the ETF that has as its goal to replicate the returns of the S&P 500 Index, has done from a performance standpoint a week and a half after Independence Day.

If you as an options trader, want to get a better idea on the potential direction for the SPY (and the S&P 500) the tool I use called Money Holidays will help retrieve that info and may help in an options traders research.

Tom Gentile
C1P: Chief 1-Percenter

Market in Focus

Equities: XLE

The XLE is the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE).

It is a way to use a replication strategy where one can invest or trade this ETF that consists of stocks from the following industries: oil / gas and consumable fuels / energy equipment and services. It is non-diversified.

Figure 1: 120-Day Candlestick Chart XLE
Figure 1: 120-Day Candlestick Chart XLE

The annotation speaks to an ‘either or’ scenario for XLE. This annotation is based on a technical view or standpoint only.

My view is not taking in to account any oil cuts from Russia or Saudi Arabia, though that news may portend a technical move off the horizontal support.

Tools and Observations for Options Traders

As promised on the front page of this weeks newsletter, I am going to show you what the SPY has done up to and including 10 days after Independence Day over the past 10 years up to 10 days after the holiday.

Figure 2: SPY Historical Data of Avg. % Gain up to 10 Days Post Independence Day
Figure 2: SPY Historical Data of Avg. % Gain up to 10 Days Post Independence Day

This table was created by and taken form my tools, (

I typed in the symbol SPY. I did a 10-yr lookback. Chose Independence day for the Holiday. The scan type is asking the tools to search for results x number of days prior to the holiday, x days after the holiday or a combination of both time frames.

I chose ‘After’ and the number of days after I chose was 10-days (trading days).

The results show the SPY had 7 results of various # of days after the holiday where the SPY traded higher. It looks like the odds of SPY trading higher is a reasonable expectation for the SPY (equities market) and therefor I would expect the bullishness in the market prior to the holiday and that has happened for months now to continue a little bit longer.

Tom Gentile
C1P: Chief 1-Percenter


Stock and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk.

You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the stock and options market. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

This is neither an offer to buy/sell/ or recommend a particular stock or option.

Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been actually executed, the results may have under or overcompensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with hindsight.

No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Disclaimer of Warranties and Liabilities Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC including employees, consultants, and editors (“Publisher”) cannot and do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the content found in our areas, or its usefulness for any particular purpose.

Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC also make no promises that our content or the service itself will be delivered to you uninterrupted, timely, secure, or error-free. Under no circumstances will Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC be liable for direct, indirect, incidental, or any other type of damages resulting from your use or downloading of any content on our site.

This includes, but is in no way limited to, loss or injury caused in whole or in part by our negligence or by anything beyond our control in creating or delivering any portion of Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC.

You are agreeing that you bear responsibility for your own investment research and investment decisions. You also agree that Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC will not be liable for any investment decision made or action taken by you, or others based upon reliance on news, information, or any other material published by Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC.

Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC relies on various sources of information that we believe to be accurate and reliable. However, we make no claims or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or truth of any material contained on our site.

Tom Gentile and TomsTradingRoom, LLC are educational portals, providing content for educational and informational purposes only. Neither Tom Gentile nor TomsTradingRoom, LLC are a broker/dealer. Investors need a broker to trade stocks and options and must meet certain requirements. All securities, futures, and investments data and ideas are offered to self-directed investors. All prices in USD unless noted otherwise.

A full disclaimer can be found here:

Sign Up Now for Free Education!