Are There Repeatable Price Patterns Around Specific Holidays?

Many are using and reaping the benefits of having my seasonal pattern scanning software tool Money Calendar or subscribing to my alert publication Money Calendar Pro.

I usually say when I speak of seasonal pattern trading I am not speaking of a specific season like Tax season, Back to School season or a specific holiday season.

For this article, though, I am going to speak about holiday seasons.

QUICK RECAP on Money Calendar

Money Calendar is a scan that was created to find if there are stocks and/or ETF’s that have a consistent price pattern move over certain periods of days in a year (and by consistent I mean they make this move over these periods of days more than one year in a row).

It looks at an open price for one day, the Start Date and the closing price of a later date, the End Date. If the security moved higher or lower over that date range and does so 9 or 10 of the last 10 years it will show up in the Money Calendar data. And we are looking back over 10 years’ worth of data for the initial Money Calendar scan.

The tools then calculate the average price amount move so we can use that as an anticipated price move higher for the year you are in and consider that your price target.

Seasonal Patterns / Holiday

I’ve authored articles and produced videos on different seasonal patterns like Sell in May and Go Away… or how I have revised that perspective and see it now as a Buy in May and Make Money Today. Here is  recent video on that: Bullish Signals EVERYWHERE! Buy In MAY And Make MONEY TODAY!

Another seasonal pattern is more specific to the time frame of Christmas and New Year’s.

Santa Claus Rally

Much like Santa Claus himself, some folks either believe or they don’t.

The period of days the Santa Claus rally typically takes place is the last week of December and over the first couple of days in the new year (January).

Why does this happen?

Call it people feeling the holiday ‘cheer.’  There is a theory that since big institutions take their vacations at this time, the folks that are still around making buying decisions are the retail traders/investors and since they have this holiday cheer mindset, they may be buying stocks they like because of that.

Info from invesopedia.com shows more than two-thirds of Decembers dating back to the 1960s have resulted in positive gains for shareholders.

Anticipating a Price Move Prior to a National Holiday

In my experience there tends to be a pop in the market sometimes a week prior to a national holiday.

I don’t have a specific reason as to why I see this happen, but maybe it is due to an optimism people have about what’s going on in their life, maybe a holiday bonus is coming their way that they want to put to work in the markets, but I have a Money Calendar Holiday scanning tool that can look at past performance on a number of days prior to / afterward or a combo of both and see a history of percentage amount price moves on stocks or ETF’s.

Money Calendar Holiday Pattern for SPY

When it comes to looking for a repeatable price pattern going in to a national holiday I start with the SPY rather than trying to nail down a specific stock.

The SPY is one of the most popular exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that tracks the S&P 500 Index.

Let me show you an image from the Money Calendar Holiday scanning tool in www.tomsoptiontools.com that may emphasize what I am seeing for the SPY and its potential  week before Memorial Day.

 Let me provide you the data one can use to anticipate what type of price amount move the SPY could make based on its history of movement over the range of days shown (5 days prior to Memorial Day).

The result in the table above shows starting 5 days prior to Memorial Day SPY has made an Avg. 1.32% or $4.27 move.

An expected bullish move would mean a bullish option trade is in order. Consideration of the type of bullish option trade is a long call, call debit spread or put credit spread to name  few.

It is Up to You

It is up to you and your financial professionals to determine the suitability of any trade or investment to your portfolio.

My intent with this report is the same with all I provide. Whether it be in a live session online, recorded session or special report. And that is to educate you on what I see and have learned myself. And how I consider taking advantage of research and analysis when it comes to options trading.

I wish you the best in life always and especially any and all holidays. Should you make money from my education I wish for you to use it to take care of yourself and your family the best you see fit.

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App: Toms Option Tools

Toms Option Tools scan the markets for bullish and bearish trade opportunities using our proprietary scans and strategy algorithms. TTR Darknet finds bullish entries based on triple stack channel collisions. Money Calendar identifies seasonal patterns with at least 90% accuracy looking back 10 years. Weekly Cash Clock finds short term opportunities that last a week on average. Microcurrency Trader applies Darknet technology and moving averages to cryptocurrencies. Velocity Trader utilizes volume spike and Velocity indicators on custom stock lists. Quantum Scripts scans the markets for momentum acceleration signals and employs Quantum noise filters. Optimal Trader finds directional pre-earnings opportunities that are optimized for entry date, stock movement, and volatility surge. My Trades tracks the profit/loss of your trades, displays stock charts and risk graphs, creates new trades, and edits existing trades. Morning Report provides top 10 option rankings in 6 categories each day.

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